Towards a Self-Consistent Physical Framework for Modeling Coupled Human and Physical Activities during the Anthropocene

Abstract:

Studies of the response of global climate to anthropogenic activities rely upon scenarios for future human activity to provide a range of possible trajectories for greenhouse gases emissions over the coming century. Sophisticated integrated models are used to explore not only what will happen, but what should happen in order to optimize societal well-being. Hundreds of equations might be used to account for the interplay between human decisions, technological change, and macroeconomic priniciples.

In contrast, the model equations used to describe geophysical phenomena look very different because they are a) purely deterministic and b) consistent with basic thermodynamic laws. This inconsistency between macroeconomics and physics suggests a rather unhappy marriage. During the Anthropocene the evolution of humanity and our environment will become increasingly intertwined. Representing such a coupling suggests a need for a common theoretical basis.

To this end, the approach that is described here is to treat civilization like any other physical process, that is as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain existing circulations and to further its material growth. Theoretical arguments and over 40 years of measurements show that a very general representation of global economic wealth (not GDP) has been tied to rates of global primary energy consumption through a constant 7.1 ± 0.1 mW per year 2005 USD. This link between physics and economics leads to very simple expressions for how fast civilization and its rate of energy consumption grow. These are expressible as a function of rates of energy and material resource discovery and depletion, and of the magnitude of externally imposed decay. The equations are validated through hindcasts that show, for example, that economic conditions in the 1950s can be invoked to make remarkably accurate forecasts of present rates of global GDP growth and primary energy consumption. One implication for the future is that the unusually rapid growth that has been seen in past 60 years may predispose civilization to an equally rapid decline, especially should resource depletion and climate change start to take their toll.