A complete tropical cyclone radial wind structure model and comprehensive comparison with observations

Abstract:

This work develops a simple model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field at the top of the boundary layer. The model is constructed by mathematically merging existing theoretical solutions for the radial wind structure in the inner convecting and outer non-convecting regions. The model is then evaluated against three observational datasets. First, the outer solution is tested against a global database from the QuikSCAT satellite (1999-2009) and found to reproduce the characteristic wind structure of tropical cyclones at large radii where convection is absent, suggesting that it successfully captures the physics of this region. Second, the inner solution is tested against the HWind database (2004-2012) for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins and are shown to credibly represent the inner-core structure but substantially underestimate wind speeds at large radii. The complete model is then shown to largely rectify this underestimation, particularly at higher intensities. Finally, model variability is compared with the Extended Best Track dataset (1988-2013). The complete model exhibits two modes of variability corresponding to the independent variations in storm size and in inner structure that mirror that observed in nature, including the independent variability of the inner and outer regions of tropical cyclones. More broadly, the model provides insight into clear definitions of the terms "size" and "structure" and their respective, independent variabilities.