Simulating the 2012 High Plains Drought Using Three Single Column Model Versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM)

Abstract:

The impact of changes in the frequency and severity of drought on fresh water sustainability is a great concern for many regions of the world. One such location is the High Plains, where the local economy is primarily driven by fresh water withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer, which accounts for approximately 30% of total irrigation withdrawals from all U.S. aquifers combined. Modeling studies that focus on the feedback mechanisms that control the climate and eco-hydrology during times of drought are limited in the sense that they use conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) with grid length scales ranging from one hundred to several hundred kilometers. Additionally, these models utilize crude statistical parameterizations of cloud processes for estimating sub-grid fluxes of heat and moisture and have a poor representation of land surface heterogeneity. For this research, we focus on the 2012 High Plains drought, and will perform numerical simulations using three single column model versions of the Community Earth System Model (SCM-CESM) at multiple sites overlying the Ogallala Aquifer for the 2010-2012 period. In the first version of SCM-CESM, CESM will be used in standard mode (Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) coupled to a single instance of the Community Land Model (CLM)), secondly, CESM will be used in Super-Parameterized mode (SP-CESM), where a cloud resolving model (CRM consists of 32 atmospheric columns) replaces the standard CAM atmospheric parameterization and is coupled to a single instance of CLM, and thirdly, CESM is used in “Multi Instance” SP-CESM mode, where an instance of CLM is coupled to each CRM column of SP-CESM (32 CRM columns coupled to 32 instances of CLM). To assess the physical realism of the land-atmosphere feedbacks simulated at each site by all versions of SCM-CESM, differences in simulated energy and moisture fluxes will be computed between years for the 2010-2012 period, and will be compared to differences calculated using observational data from the AmeriFlux tower network for the same period. Understanding the large and small-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks is very important for drought, and results from this research will give some insight to the feedbacks GCMs may produce when atmospheric and land surface heterogeneity are included within a single modeling framework.