Mass and Energy Balance Modeling of Glaciers in the Upper Susitna Basin, Alaska

Abstract:

The State of Alaska is reviving analyses of the Susitna River’s hydroelectric potential by supporting a multitude of field and modeling studies for the proposed Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric project. Critical to any effective hydroelectric development is a firm understanding of the basin-wide controls on river runoff and how seasonal reservoir recharge may change over the course of the structure’s life-span. Effectively projecting future changes in watershed-scale stream flow for the Susitna river demands understanding and quantifying glacier melt in the Alaskan range. Our research is restricted to a sub-catchment of the upper Susitna basin that feeds the Susitna River covering 2,230 km², of which 25% is glacierized. The goals of our study are to investigate the spatial and seasonal variations of the energy balance and its components across the glaciers and to model resulting streamflow from the catchment for the summer of 2013 using two models of different complexity. We apply DEBAM, a distributive energy balance model and DETIM, an enhanced temperature-index model, both coupled to a linear-reservoir runoff model, to simulate hourly surface energy fluxes, melt rates and glacier runoff using meteorological observations from an automated weather station located in the ablation zone of the West Fork glacier. Model results are compared to measurements of streamflow and mass balance at 20 ablation stakes across the glacierized area. The largest source of energy contributing to 85% of melt is net radiation followed by the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Both models capture well the seasonal and diurnal variations in streamflow and show good agreement with the mass balance point observations. The discrepancies between modeled and measured discharge can be attributed to the high uncertainty in precipitation and initial snow cover across the unglaciated part of the basin which accounts for over 75% of the modeled area.