Dynamical downscaling of future sea-level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS

Wednesday, 17 December 2014
Zhaojun Liu, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
The western North Pacific to the east of Japan is one of the regions where sea-level rise is predicted to the larger than the global mean in CMIP5 models as shown in IPCC AR5. One of the causes of the spatial variations of the sea-level is change in ocean circulation, and this effect can be important in western boundary regions, where changes of strong western boundary current can cause large sea-level changes. However, the current climate models cannot properly represent western boundary currents due to coarse model resolution. Therefore, it is desirable to perform downscaling of future sea-level changes using a regional ocean model with a high model resolution for western boundary current regions using forcings and boundary conditions taken from climate model outputs.

This study investigates future regional sea-level rise by performing dynamical downscaling in the western North Pacific, using the regional ocean model system (ROMS) with eddy-permitting 0.25-degree resolution over the North Pacific. In order to evaluate possible extremely large regional sea-level rise, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM) under RCP8.5 scenario is chosen because this model exhibits large sea-level rise among CMIP5 models in this region. ROMS are run for two epochs; one is 1950-2000 and the other is 2051-2100, and the last 20-years are analyzed. The model integration is now ongoing, and the major differences between the two runs will be reported at the meeting.