GC33A-0477:
Modulation of Heavy Rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa by Madden–Julian Oscillation Using High Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model
Wednesday, 17 December 2014
Liping Deng, Georgiy L Stenchikov, Matthew F McCabe and Hamza Kunhu Bangalath, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Abstract:
Recently, the modulation of subtropical rainfall by the dominant tropical intraseasonal signal of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), has been explored through the discussion of the MJO-convection-induced Kelvin and Rossby wave related teleconnection patterns. Our study focuses on characterizing the modulation of heavy rainfall in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by the MJO, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM) simulations (25-km; 1979-2012) and a combination of available atmospheric products from satellite, in-situ and reanalysis data. The observed Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the simulated SST from GFDL’s global coupled carbon–climate Earth System Models (ESM2M) are employed in HIRAM to investigate the sensitivity of the simulated heavy rainfall and MJO to SST. The future trend of the extreme rainfalls and their links to the MJO response to climate change are examined using HIRAM simulations of 2012-2050 with the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios to advance the possibility of characterization and forecasting of future extreme rainfall events in the MENA region.
