New Atmospheric and Oceanic Angular Momentum Datasets for Predictions of Earth Rotation/Polar Motion

Monday, 15 December 2014
David A Salstein, AER Inc, Lexington, MA, United States and Nick Stamatakos, US Naval Observatory, Washington, DC, United States
We are reviewing the state of the art in available datasets for both atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM) for the purposes of analysis and prediction of both polar motion and length of day series. Both analyses and forecasts of these quantities have been used separately and in combination to aid in short and medium range predictions of Earth rotation parameters. The AAM and OAM combination, with the possible addition of hydrospheric angular momentum can form a proxy index for the Earth rotation parameters themselves due to the conservation of angular momentum in the Earth system. Such a combination of angular momentum of the geophysical fluids has helped in forecasts within periods up to about 10 days, due to the dynamic models, and together with extended statistical predictions of Earth rotation parameters out even as far as 90 days, according to Dill et al. (2013). We assess other dataset combinations that can be used in such analysis and prediction efforts for the Earth rotation parameters, and demonstrate the corresponding skill levels in doing so.