B51B-0020:
Title: Estimating the Changes in Forest Carbon Dynamics of South Korean Forests Under Climate Change Scenarios
Friday, 19 December 2014
Jongyeol Lee1, Tae Kyung Yoon1, Seung Hyun Han1, Seongjun Kim1, Myoung Jong Yi2, Gwan Soo Park3, Choonsig Kim4, Young Mo Son5, Raehyun Kim5 and Yowhan Son1, (1)Korea University, Seoul, South Korea, (2)Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, South Korea, (3)Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea, (4)Gyeongnam National University of Science and Technology, Jinju, South Korea, (5)KFRI Korea Forest Research Institute of the Korea Forest Service, Seoul, South Korea
Abstract:
Climate change will affect global forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the changes in C stocks and annual C sequestration rates of South Korean forests using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the Constant Temperature (CT) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios (2012–2100). The simulation unit was each permanent sampling plots of the 5th Korean National Forest Inventory. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. The annual mean temperature and precipitation were established based on the RCP 8.5 data. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the forest C stocks were 3–7% less than those stocks under the CT scenario. For broadleaf species, the forest C stocks increased from 599.6 Tg C in 2012 to 1058.0 (CT scenario) or 986.7 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For needleleaf species, the forest C stocks increased from 385.4 Tg C in 2012 to 585.0 (CT scenario) or 568.6 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of those forest types in South Korea over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (57.4 and 144.5 g C m-2 yr-1 for broadleaf and needleleaf species, respectively) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (62.5 and 171.2 g C m-2 yr-1 for broadleaf and needleleaf species, respectively). Those differences between the climate scenarios were attributed to changes in decay rates of the dead organic matter due to temperature increase. We concluded that the C sequestration potential of South Korean forests could be decreased by climate change.
