The unfolding instability of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf and its tributary glaciers

Abstract:

The disintegration of the northern and central parts of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002 demonstrated the strong interaction between ice shelves and their tributary glaciers. The surviving southern part of the ice shelf and its glaciers have hitherto received less attention, based on the assumption that the remnant ice shelf continued to provide the glaciers with sufficient buttressing. Our findings here contradict this view, revealing significant changes since 2002 or earlier from IceBridge altimetry measurements and InSAR-derived flow speeds. The surfaces of Leppard and Flask glaciers directly upstream of their grounding lines lowered persistently by 15 to 20 m in the period 2002-2011. The thinning appears to be dynamic as the flow of both glaciers and the remnant ice shelf accelerated in the same period. Flask in particular started accelerating as early as 2000 almost doubling its flow speed by 2012. These changes are associated with a reduction in the buttressing afforded by the remnant ice shelf and an increase in its fracture as shown by our numerical modeling. One large rift in particular, only 12 km downstream of the grounding line, is revealed by the observations and modeling to be rapidly extending across the ice shelf, defining the likely front of the next large calving event. The increased fracture and continued flow acceleration of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf presage its approaching demise.