Decadal climate predictions with an high resolution coupled model

Abstract:

We analyze the decadal prediction skill of sea surface temperature variability with a high resolution coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (OAGCM). The HR CERFACS was developed at the CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique) laboratory in the framework of the EU-FP7 SPECS (Seasonal-to-decadal climate Predictions for the improvement of European Climate Services) project in order to address the question of decadal predictability with the use of a high spatial resolution. The atmospheric model is ARPEGE/IFS with a T359 spectral truncature and the oceanic model is NEMO at 0.25° resolution including the LIM2 sea ice model. Each hindcasts consist of a 10-members ensemble integrated over a 10-years period. These hindcasts are full-field initialized every year from 1993 to 2009 and initial oceanic state is given by the GLORYS2V1 (0.25° resolution) sea-surface temperatures. Members of a given ensemble (one initialization date) are generated by perturbations of the atmospheric initial conditions. We study the predictability of the global sea-surface temperature focusing on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We also investigate the prediction skill of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).