Assessing the Future Climate Change in Amazon Basin as Derived from the PRECIS Regional Climate Modeling System

Abstract:

A number of extreme climate events, such as severe droughts occurred in 2005 and 2010, and impacts from multiple anthropogenic sources, including deforestation, in the Amazon basin have caused widespread socio-ecological stresses and may contribute as a positive feedback to the global climate change. Climate variability and change over the Amazon basin pose significant challenges for society. This is the case when uncertainties in projections of regional climate changes exist. To assess the climate projections and possible changes in the dry season (strength and duration) over Amazon, we have conducted a suite of experiments using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the PRECIS model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods. In additional, we have used one of the new LU scenarios (for 2050) developed within AMAZALERT Project to assess its effects on climate over the Amazon basin relative to the standard PRECIS simulation.