On estimation of stochastic forcing with application to El Niño

Abstract:

Although Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) provides skillful forecasts of tropical ocean sea

surface temperatures, LIM's diagnostic properties are at least as useful as its prognostic

properties. In this presentation, we discuss an updated method for using LIM to obtain

time series representing stochastic forcing of El Niño and to quantify particular

unpredictable contributions to LIM forecast error. Attention is paid to the proper

stochastic calculus and to the time scale separation between the stochastic forcing and El Niño's

signal. The method yields seldom-considered sources of El Niño's stochastic forcing.