SEISMIC HAZARD TO THE DIABLO CANYON NUCLEAR POWER PLANT, COASTAL CENTRAL CALIFORNIA; A REALISTIC ASSESSMENT NEEDED

Abstract:

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A recent issue of EOS featured the article “Active Faults and Nuclear Power Plants” (Chapman et.al., 2014). Although this article mainly reports on evaluations of fault hazard issues at Japan’s Tsuruga NPP, it also includes a section on how the owner of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant (DCNPP) in California, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), is successfully responding to the evolving needs of seismic hazard assessment for that project. However, a review of the history of such assessment for the DCNPP project reveals a less benign situation, of which there is no hint in the EOS article. This history shows a long term pattern of collaborative efforts by PG&E and its operations and safety regulator, the US NRC, to maintain the operation of DCNPP using stratagems of non-recognition or non-acknowledgment of hazardous conditions, or of minimizing the postulated effects of such conditions by combinations of discovering new means of estimating ever lower levels of potential vibratory ground motions, and feeding the results into logic trees for a PRA which calculates the hazard down to levels acceptable to the NRC for the plant’s continued operation.

Such a result, however, can be made only if the geologic and seismologic reality of a very high level of seismic hazard to the facility is side stepped, down played, or dismissed. The actual pattern of late Quaternary—including contemporary—tectonism beneath and surrounding the DCNPP site, as shown on a realistic portrayal of geologic structures and active seismicity, is clearly at odds with such a conclusion, and with the statement in the EOS article that PG&E’s Long Term Seismic Program “…has provided increased confidence that earthquakes occurring in central California are not likely to produce surprising or conflicting data.”