Developing and Validating a Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index

Abstract:

Santa Ana winds, common to southern California during the fall through spring, are a type of katabatic wind that originates from a direction generally ranging from 360°/0° to 100° and is usually accompanied by very low humidity. Since fuel conditions tend to be driest from late September through the middle of November, Santa Ana winds occurring during this period have the greatest potential to produce large, devastating fires when an ignition occurs. Such catastrophic fires occurred in 1993, 2003, 2007, and 2008. Because of the destructive nature of these fires, there has been a growing desire to categorize Santa Ana wind events in much the same way that tropical cyclones have been categorized. The Santa Ana Wildfire Threat index (SAWT) is an attempt to categorize such events with respect to fire activity, based on surface wind velocity, dew point depression, and forecasted fuel conditions. The index, a USDA Forest Service product, was developed by the Forest Service in collaboration with San Diego Gas and Electric Utility (SDG&E), the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UCLA, The Desert Research Institute (DRI), and Vertum Partners. The methodology behind the SAWT index, along with the index itself will be presented in detail. Also, there will be a discussion on the construction of a 30-year climatology of the index, which includes various meteorological and fuel parameters. We will demonstrate the usefulness of the index as another decision support tool for fire agencies and first responders, and how it could assist the general public and private industry in the preparation of critical Santa Ana wind events.