Exploring different scenarios of land use policy and their impacts on provision of ecosystem services in Amazonia

Monday, 15 December 2014
Celso von Randow1, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar1, Kirsten Thonicke2, Hans Verbeeck3, Matthieu Guimberteau4, Fanny Langerwisch2, Anja Rammig2, David Galbraith5, Jelena Maksic1 and Bart Kruijt6, (1)Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Brazil, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (3)Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, (4)Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: expérimentations et approches numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France, (5)University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, (6)Alterra, Wageningen, 6700, Netherlands
A great challenge faced by the Amazon region is to maintain the ecosystem services provided by the pristine forest and its complex ecological processes, as well as the needs of the growing human population in the region, in face of global environmental changes and growing demands for land use. In the present study we analyze two different storylines linking different land use scenarios to possible impacts on the provision of ecosystem services in Amazonia: 1) a sustainable, environmental development scenario and 2) a chaotic, uncontrollable deforestation scenario. The future land cover maps are projected by a spatially explicit, dynamic land use model (LuccME) and are then used as inputs, in combination with climate change scenarios, to drive four biosphere models (INLAND, ORCHIDEE, JULES and LPJ). The biosphere models simulate changes in evapotranspiration and carbon fluxes and stocks. Finally, overlaying the biosphere model outputs with maps of roads or protected areas in the region, we analyze how the two land use scenarios will possibly affect the provision of key ecosystem services in the region.