USE OF A STOCHASTIC JOINT INVERSION MODELING ALGORITHM TO DEVELOP A HYDROTHERMAL FLOW MODEL AT A GEOTHERMAL PROSPECT

Abstract:

A stochastic joint inverse algorithm is used to analyze diverse geophysical and hydrologic data associated with a geothermal prospect. The approach uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) global search algorithm to develop an ensemble of hydrothermal groundwater flow models that are most consistent with the observations. The algorithm utilizes an initial conceptual model descriptive of structural (geology), parametric (permeability) and hydrothermal (saturation, temperature) characteristics of the geologic system. Initial (a-priori) estimates of uncertainty in these characteristics are used to drive simulations of hydrothermal fluid flow and related geophysical processes in a large number of random realizations of the conceptual geothermal system spanning these uncertainties. The process seeks to improve the conceptual model by developing a ranked subset of model realizations that best match all available data within a specified norm or tolerance. Statistical (posterior) characteristics of these solutions reflect reductions in the a-priori uncertainties. The algorithm has been tested on a geothermal prospect located at Superstition Mountain, California and has been successful in creating a suite of models compatible with available temperature, surface resistivity, and magnetotelluric (MT) data. Although the MCMC method is highly flexible and capable of accommodating multiple and diverse datasets, a typical inversion may require the evaluation of thousands of possible model runs whose sophistication and complexity may evolve with the magnitude of data considered. As a result, we are testing the use of sensitivity analyses to better identify critical uncertain variables, lower order surrogate models to streamline computational costs, and value of information analyses to better assess optimal use of related data.

This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-658163