Severe to Extreme Solar Storms: Magnetic Field Complexity and Warnings

Abstract:

The most pressing space weather warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. By now we have studied the extreme solar storms in May 1921, October-November 2003 and July 2012. A solid torus model was developed to explain the extreme solar storms of May 1921. The most recent extreme solar storm in July 2012 makes it possible to use magnetic field data of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and derived magnetic field complexity parameters of the SHARP system. Preliminary daily probabilistic warnings of severe solar flares, based on SDO magnetic field complexity and SHARP parameters will be presented. The general goal is to try to integrate the topological with the probabilistic approach into a daily warning system of severe to extreme solar storms.