SM24A-02:
Ensemble Forecast of Major Solar Flares
Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 4:12 PM
Jordan Armando Guerra, Catholic University of America, Washington, DC, United States, Antti A Pulkkinen, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Vadim M Uritsky, NASA Goddard Space Flight Cent, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Abstract:
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for solar flares of M and X classes. Using the forecasts from 4 flare-predictor methods hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC), this model provides an ensemble forecast by combining flaring probabilities from individual methods. Performance-based combination weights are calculated using a procedure that applies a threshold to the probability time series and then minimizes the chi squared parameter between the model and observed flare time series. We used a sample of 13 recent active regions that produced several M- and X-class flares. We will discuss the results of the new ensemble approach and show how the method can be used in a real-time environment for flare predictions.
