Resolving Multiscale Processes in Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Parallel EEMD

Abstract:

The recent advance in high-resolution global models has suggested that improved multiscale simulations of tropical waves may help extend the lead time of tropical cyclone (TC) formation prediction (e.g., Shen et al., 2010ab, 2012, 2013a). In previous efforts in the multiscale analysis of tropical waves , the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) has been successfully parallelized and used to detect atmospheric wave signals on different spatial scales (e.g. Shen et al., 2013b) that include Mixed Rossby Gravity (MRG) waves, Western Wind Belt (WWB), African Easterly Waves (AEWs), etc. We now extend the related studies to examine the evolution of the large scale waves and their association with the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic for an extensive time period spanning multiple years.

Our goal is to analyze the multiscale interaction in the initiation and early intensification stage of an AEW and its subsequent impact on TC genesis that involves mainly the large scale downscaling processes. Specific focus is on the impact of barotropic instability and critical level (CL, or steering level) that may appear in association with the AEW. The presence of the CL is believed to play an important role in providing a favorable environment in the early TC-genesis stage in the marsupial paradigm scenario. Preliminary analysis of the satellite data obtained from the newly launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission linked to the TC genesis processes will be included.