S32C-04:
Joint Seismic-Geodetic Real-Time Finite Fault Models For Earthquake Early Warning
Wednesday, 17 December 2014: 11:05 AM
Sarah E Minson1, Maren Boese1,2, Claude Felizardo1, Thomas H Heaton1 and Egill Hauksson1, (1)California Institute of Technology, Seismological Laboratory, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Abstract:
To take advantage of their complementary benefits, we combine seismic and geodetic data streams in real-time to constrain the rupture geometry, obtain magnitude estimates that do not saturate for large earthquakes, and to produce improved shaking forecasts relative to point source earthquake early warning algorithms. Both the fault orientation and spatial distribution of slip are determined in real-time as the earthquake rupture evolves by combining the seismic analysis from the Finite Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) algorithm (Böse et al., 2012) with the geodetic analysis of the Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip (BEFORES) algorithm (Minson et al., 2014). By using the FinDer output as the prior probability density for BEFORES, we can obtain the joint Bayesian posterior probability distribution describing the relative probability of all fault orientations and slip models given both the available seismic and geodetic observations.
