Aerosol Indirect Forcing Dictated by Warm Low-Cloud

Abstract:

Aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating the extent of global warming. Increased aerosol levels can enhance the solar reflection from warm liquid clouds countering greenhouse gas warming. However, very little is actually known about the strength of the indirect effects for mixed-phase stratiform clouds as well as other cloud types such as cumulus, altocumulus, nimbostratus, deep convection, and cirrus. These mixed-phase cloud types are ubiquitous and typically overlooked in satellite estimates of the indirect forcing. In this study we assess the responses of each major cloud type to changes in aerosol loading and provide an estimate of their contribution to the global mean indirect forcing. Satellite data is collected from several co-located sensors in the A-train for the period starting in January of 2007 – 2010. Cloud layers are classified according to the 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR CloudSat product. Radiative fluxes are obtained from CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) and examined as a function of the aerosol loading obtained from MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data. For low-level cloud regimes (e.g., stratus, stratocumulus, cumulus) we show that the longwave contribution to the net indirect effect is insignificant and dominated by changes in reflected shortwave radiation which also becomes insignificant as cloud top temperature decreases below 0°C. An increase in the aerosol loading in mixed-phase stratocumulus leads to more ice and precipitation that depletes cloud water and limits cloud brightening. For the more convective type clouds (e.g., altocumulus, nimbostratus, deep convection), increased aerosol loading can invigorate deep convection and promote deeper clouds with higher cloud albedo (cooling effect) and cloud tops that emit less longwave radiation to space (warming effect). As a consequence, the shortwave and longwave indirect radiative effects tend to cancel for the observations of deep convective clouds. Overall, marine warm low-cloud largely govern the aerosol indirect forcing due to its strong sensitivity. Given the significantly weaker sensitivities amongst other cloud regimes it is imperative to incorporate them to improve estimates of the overall strength of the aerosol indirect effect on climate.