PLANNING FOR REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES IN NORTHWEST CHINA USING A DYNAMIC SIMULATION MODEL

Abstract:

Problem of water scarcity is prominent in northwest China due to its typical desert climate. Exceedence of sustainable yield of groundwater resources has resulted in groundwater depletion, which has raised a series of issues such as drying wells, increasing pumping costs and environmental damage. With a rapid agricultural and economic development, population increase has added extra stress on available water resources by increasing municipal, agricultural and industrial demands. This necessitates efficient water resources management strategies with better understanding of the causes of water stress and options for sustainable development of economy and management of environment. This study focuses on simulating the water supply and demand, under the influence of changing climate, for Shanshan County, located in northwest of China. A dynamic simulation model is developed using the modeling tool Stella for monthly water balance for the period ranging from 2000-2030. Different future water demand and supply scenarios are developed to represent: (1) base scenario- with current practices; (2) change of the primary water source; (3) improvement of irrigation efficiency; (4) reduction of irrigation area; and (5) reduction of industrial water demand. The results indicate that besides growing demand, the low water use efficiency and low level of water reuse are the primary concerns for water scarcity. Groundwater recharge and abstraction could be balanced by 2030, by reducing industrial demand by 50% and using high efficiency irrigation for agriculture. The model provided a better understanding of the effect of different policies and can help in identifying water resources management strategies.