GC41E-0631:
Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

Thursday, 18 December 2014
Masashi Kiguchi1, Misako Hatono2, Hiroaki Ikeuchi2, Shinichiro Nakamura3, Yukiko Hirabayashi2, Shinjiro Kanae4 and Taikan Oki1, (1)University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan, (2)the University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Engineering, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan, (3)the University of Tokyo, Institute of Industrial Science, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan, (4)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
Abstract:
In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage.

The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

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