The Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer and Solar Wind Prediction

Abstract:

Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer (ASSA) is an automatic software system of identifying sunspot groups, coronal holes, and filament channels which are three major solar sources causing the space weather. Coronal holes, the sources of high speed solar wind stream, cause many of disturbances to the geomagnetic field. We have developed a solar wind prediction model using artificial neural network technique with the ASSA coronal hole data archive of the period of from 1997 to 2013. When the ASSA generated coronal hole data archive, images of SOHO EIT 195 and SDO AIA 193 were used for morphological identification and then SOHO MDI Magnetograms and SDO HMI Magnetograms were used for quantitative verification. In this presentation, we will characterize coronal hole area and solar mean field variation over both the period of solar cycle 24 and the inclining phase of solar cycle 25 and present correlations among coronal hole data(area, location and polarity etc.); the corresponding solar wind velocity; and geomagnetic indices. Those study results were used when selecting training data sets into the artificial neural network. The initial evaluation results of the solar wind prediction model will be also presented.