The Uncertain Carbon Emissions in China

Abstract:

Anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are considered as being well understood with a low uncertainty (9.1 ± 0.5Gt C yr^-1). Yet emissions from developing countries have a higher uncertainty, and their increasing trend hence causes the global emission uncertainty to increase with time. By using full transparency emission inventory which the energy consumption, fuel heating values, carbon content and oxidation rate reported separately in sectoal level, here we found new 1.5 Gt C yr^-1 (15% of global total) uncertainties of carbon emission inventory, which mainly contributed by the mass energy use and various consumption coal quality in China and India. Increment of coal’s carbon emission in China and India are equivalent to 130 % of global total coal’s emission growth during 2008-2010, various reported heating value and carbon content of coal consumption result in the different estimates of carbon emission in China and India up to 1.5 C yr^-1. These new emerging uncertainties implies a significant mis-estimation of human induced carbon emissions and a new dominating factor in contributing the global carbon budget residual.