H23I-1003:
Biofuel Expansion and Water Resources in the Ivinhema Basin
Tuesday, 16 December 2014
Jesse M Libra1, Carey King1, Alexandre Xavier1 and Bridget R Scanlon2, (1)University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, (2)University of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX, United States
Abstract:
Brazil produces approximately a quarter the world’s yearly ethanol demand, making it a global leader in biofuel production. The repercussions for local water resources in areas of intensive biofuel expansion, however, remain uncertain. To assess the effects of various land-use change scenarios on water sustainability in Brazil, this study models a small catchment currently experiencing soybean and sugarcane expansion using the Stockholm Environment Institute's Water Evaluation and Planning software (WEAP). The catchment, the Ivinhema basin in Southern Mato Grosso do Sul, has experienced extensive sugarcane expansion since the mid-1990s – a trend that is expected to continue. The model uses climatic data, soil characteristics, and agricultural production trends in the region from 1990 – 2012 to simulate known streamflows, using the WEAP-MABIA method. The model predicts flow impacts under a number of different future climatic and land-use scenarios. The results will be used to inform the ICONE's Brazil Land Use Model (BLUM), which models the economics of land use.
