The Assessment of Vulnerability of Industrial Parks to Climate Change in South Korea
Friday, 19 December 2014
Ji-Eun Ryu1, Dong-Kun Lee1, Tae-Yong Jung2, Kwang-Lim Choi3 and See-hyung Lee3, (1)Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea, (2)KDI school of policy and management, Seoul, South Korea, (3)The korea chamber of Commerce&Industry, seoul, South Korea
Many countries are developing policy and measures to adapt to climate changes at the national and local levels, but the assessment of vulnerability to climate change and the establishment of countermeasures in the industries considering industrial factors such as worker, infrastructure are insufficient due to the characteristics of diverse processes and fields. In South Korea, the national government provides infrastructures for industrial parks where various companies in manufacturing and other industries are concentrated . Because of their concentration, damages can aggravate in case of natural disasters such as typhoons. In this study, vulnerability indices for climate change were developed and evaluated using climate scenarios for the climate exposure of localized terrential downpour for eight industrial parks. The vulnerability indices were selected and reviewed through literature review and two in-depth interviews with experts in various industries, and the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was conducted by collecting relevant information including the Directory of Industrial Complexes. The vulnerability of each industrial park to climate change was assessed for four time serious such as the base line, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s . As a result, even though the possibility of localized heavy rain was the highest in Yeosu(Southeast coast) at present, but it was predicted that Gwangyang(Southwest coast) will be higher in the future. For the influences of climate including sensitivity, Ulsan Mipo(Southeast coast) is currently under the highest influence of climate, but the Gumi(Inland area) was forecasted to be under the highest influence of climate in the future. As a result of the assessment of vulnerability to climate change including adaptive capacity, Gumi and Myongji Noksan(Southeast coast) were most vulnerable to localized heavy rain. The degree of vulnerability of all the industrial parks except Ulsan and Yeosu was forecasted to increase in the future, albeit slightly. Policy suggestions for the management of industrial parks were derived based on these findings by considering the regions and industries that are vulnerable to localized heavy rain if existing industrial parks are renovated or new industrial parks are planning.