A tiered observational system for anthropogenic methane emissions

Abstract:

Improved understanding of anthropogenic methane emissions is required for closing the global carbon budget and addressing priority challenges in climate policy. Several decades of top-down and bottom-up studies show that anthropogenic methane emissions are systematically underestimated in key regions and economic sectors. These uncertainties have been compounded by the dramatic rise of disruptive technologies (e.g., the transformation in the US energy system due to unconventional gas and oil production). Methane flux estimates derived from inverse analyses and aircraft-based mass balance approaches underscore the disagreement in nationally and regionally reported methane emissions as well as the possibility of a long-tail distribution in fugitive emissions spanning the US natural gas supply chain; i.e. a small number of super-emitters may be responsible for most of the observed anomalies. Other studies highlight the challenges of sectoral and spatial attribution of fugitive emissions – including the relative contributions of dairies vs oil and gas production or disentangling the contributions of natural gas transmission, distribution, and consumption or landfill emissions in complex urban environments. Limited observational data remains a foundational barrier to resolving these challenges. We present a tiered observing system strategy for persistent, high-frequency monitoring over large areas to provide remote detection, geolocation and quantification of significant anthropogenic methane emissions across cities, states, basins and continents. We describe how this would both improve confidence in methane emission estimates and expedite resolution of fugitive emissions and leaks. We summarize recent prototype field campaigns that employ multiple vantage points and measurement techniques (including NASA’s CARVE and HyTES aircraft and PanFTS instrument on Mt Wilson). We share preliminary results of this tiered observational approach including examples of individual methane point sources associated with oil and gas production and distribution, feedlots, and urban landfills in California.