Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey. (SATREPS Project: Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development by JICA-JST)

Tuesday, 16 December 2014: 3:10 PM
YoshiYuki Kaneda1,2, Mustafa Ozder Erdik3, Narumi Takahashi1, Nurcan Meral Ozel3, Takane Hori1, Muneo Hori4, Kunihiko Kumamoto5, Dogan Kalafat3, Ali Pinar3, Asim Oguz Ozel6, Ahmet C Yalciner7, Murat Nurlu8, Gulum Tanircan3, Seckin Citak1, Keisuke Ariyoshi1 and Ocal Necmioglu3, (1)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan, (2)Nagoya University, Disaster mitigation center, Nagoya, Japan, (3)Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul, Turkey, (4)Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, (5)Edogawa University, Tokyo, Japan, (6)Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey, (7)Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, (8)Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), Ankara, Turkey
Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes occurred in Turkey, with a total affected population of ~7 million and direct estimated losses of ~25 billion USD. About half the lives lost were due to two earthquakes associated with the North Anatolian Fault in 1939 and 1999. During this time, seven large westward-migrating earthquakes created a 900-km-long continuous surface rupture along the fault zone from Erzincan to the Marmara Sea, stopping just short of Istanbul. Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and postseismic effects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) = 7.4, Parsons concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw >7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35% to 70% in the next 30 years. This high probability is shared by Tokyo and San Francisco; however, the earthquake fragility of the pre-2000 building stock in Turkey is much higher than that of California or Japan. (Erdik, 2013). All of the arguments described above provide a sound basis for a Japanese-Turkish partnership enabling each partner to share experiences gained from past destructive earthquakes and prepare for expected large earthquakes. The SATREPS project aims to address this need, also focusing on the tsunami hazard. The project’s main objectives are i) to develop disaster mitigation policies and strategies based on multidisciplinary research activities; ii) to provide decision makers with newly found knowledge for its implementation to the current regulations; iii) to organize disaster education programs in order to increase disaster awareness in Turkey; iv) to contribute the evaluation of active fault studies in Japan. To achieve successfully these objectives, 4 research groups have been set specializing on observations, simulations, civil engineering and disaster education and the results will be integrated for disaster mitigation in the Marmara region and disaster education in Turkey.