Adaptation pathways in agriculture: A case study on global wheat production

Tuesday, 16 December 2014
Akemi Tanaka1, Kiyoshi Takahashi1, Yuji Masutomi2, Naota Hanasaki1, Yasuaki Hijioka1 and Hideo Shiogama1, (1)NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, (2)College of Agriculture, Ibaraki University, Ami, Inashiki, Japan
When decision makers plan adaptation to climate change, they have to consider time variation of the effectiveness of adaptation. Since climate is expected to keep changing, the adaptation which is considered optimal at a certain time may become insufficient later. Several existing studies have proposed a concept termed “adaptation pathways” that are generated based on the assumption that another option needs to be implemented if a certain option no longer meets specific objectives (Haasnoot et al., 2012). We developed nation-wise adaptation pathways globally for wheat production under the projected climate change over the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (1) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (2) switching crop varieties. We calculated wheat yield with varying irrigated area and the number of selectable crop varieties using a crop model called M-GAEZ. Then we generated adaptation pathways to maintain current country-based yield. We found that both the adaptation pathways and yield changes led were different among countries. In this session, we argue the difference in optimal timing and variety of adaptation options among countries.