Sensitivity of Modeled European Ozone Concentrations to NMVOC Speciation

Abstract:

In European emission inventories, the solvent sector is one of the top contributors to total anthropogenic NMVOC emissions, along with the transport sector. However, the speciation profile for solvent NMVOCs (i.e., which individual species make up these NMVOC emissions) is very uncertain, with different data sources showing significant differences. Because of differences in reactivity between individual VOCs, the differences in solvent NMVOC speciation have the potential to lead to significant differences in predicted ozone concentrations. Initial box model studies have shown that these speciation differences can lead to differences in ozone concentrations of up to 40 μg/m3 (20 ppb) under idealized conditions. Here we use the regional chemistry and circulation model WRF-CHEM, implemented for the European domain, to examine the sensitivity of predicted ozone to different NMVOC speciations applied to European solvent-sector emissions. These results will be used to evaluate if an investment in developing updated, detailed NMVOC speciations by source sector is necessary for an improved representation of ozone pollution in Europe.