Modeling the surface mass balance and firn evolution of glaciers around Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

Abstract:

A coupled modeling approach is applied to simulate the long-term (1961-2012) surface mass balance and subsurface evolution of the Kongsvegen and Holtedahlfonna glacier systems in western Svalbard. Principle aims are: 1) to quantify and analyze the distributed surface mass balance evolution, 2) to estimate the contribution of melt water refreezing and internal accumulation to the mass balance, and 3) to detect changes in firn conditions over the simulation period. In order to achieve this, HIRLAM regional climate model output for 1961-2012 is projected onto the 100-m model grid and serves as input for a coupled model surface energy balance – firn model. Available stake measurements since 1987, together with weather station data and snow profiling observations, are used for parameter estimation, as well as validation of the model results. Extensive spin-up is performed to provide initialized subsurface conditions at the start of the experiments. Results indicate a slightly positive area-averaged surface mass balance of 0.08 m w.e. yr^-1, which only fractionally compensates for mass loss by calving. Melt water refreezing (spatial mean 0.30 m w.e. yr^-1) provides a strong buffer for mass loss, whereas substantial internal accumulation (up to 0.22 m w.e. yr^-1) adds uncertainty to mass balance observations in the accumulation zone. An increasingly negative surface mass balance over the last two decades has led to a retreat of the firn line and a substantial reduction of the firn air content. Together with a negative trend in the albedo and elevated runoff this could mark the onset of accelerated near-future mass loss.