A21H-3130:
The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies

Tuesday, 16 December 2014
Robert Pincus, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Bjorn B Stevens, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, Piers Forster, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom, William Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States and V "Ram" Ramaswamy, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States
Abstract:
The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies

An enormous amount of attention has been paid to the diversity of responses in the CMIP and other multi-model ensembles. This diversity is normally interpreted as a distribution in climate sensitivity driven by some distribution of feedback mechanisms. Identification of these feedbacks relies on precise identification of the forcing to which each model is subject, including distinguishing true error from model diversity.

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) aims to disentangle the role of forcing from model sensitivity as determinants of varying climate model response by carefully characterizing the radiative forcing to which such models are subject and by coordinating experiments in which it is specified. RFMIP consists of four activities:

1) An assessment of accuracy in flux and forcing calculations for greenhouse gases under past, present, and future climates, using off-line radiative transfer calculations in specified atmospheres with climate model parameterizations and reference models

2) Characterization and assessment of model-specific historical forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, based on coordinated diagnostic output from climate models and off-line radiative transfer calculations with reference models

3) Characterization of model-specific effective radiative forcing, including contributions of model climatology and rapid adjustments, using coordinated climate model integrations and off-line radiative transfer calculations with a single fast model

4) Assessment of climate model response to precisely-characterized radiative forcing over the historical record, including efforts to infer true historical forcing from patterns of response, by direct specification of non-greenhouse-gas forcing in a series of coordinated climate model integrations

This talk discusses the rationale for RFMIP, provides an overview of the four activities, and presents preliminary motivating results.

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