Numerical Weather Predictions Evaluation Using Spatial Verification Methods

Abstract:

During the last years high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations have been used to examine meteorological events with increased convective activity. Traditional verification methods do not provide the desired level of information to evaluate those high-resolution simulations. To assess those limitations new spatial verification methods have been proposed. In the present study an attempt is made to estimate the ability of the WRF model (WRF ‐ARW ver3.5.1) to reproduce selected days with high convective activity during the year 2010 using those feature-based verification methods. Three model domains, covering Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and northern Africa (d01), the wider area of Greece (d02) and central Greece - Thessaly region (d03) are used at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km respectively. By alternating microphysics (Ferrier, WSM6, Goddard), boundary layer (YSU, MYJ) and cumulus convection (Kain-­‐Fritsch, BMJ) schemes, a set of twelve model setups is obtained. The results of those simulations are evaluated against data obtained using a C-Band (5cm) radar located at the centre of the innermost domain. Spatial characteristics are well captured but with a variable time lag between simulation results and radar data.

Acknowledgements: This research is co­financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-­‐2013).