Assessing the Vulnerability of Streams to Increased Frequency and Severity of Low Flows in the Southeastern United States

Abstract:

A changing climate poses risks to the availability and quality of water resources. Among the risks, increased frequency and severity of low flow periods in streams would be significant for many in-stream and out-of-stream uses of water. While down-scaled climate projections serve as the basis for understanding impacts of climate change on hydrologic systems, a robust framework for risk assessment incorporates multiple dimensions of risks including the vulnerability of hydrologic systems to climate change impacts. Streamflow records from the southeastern US were examined to assess the vulnerability of streams to increased frequency and severity of low flows. Long-term (>50 years) records provide evidence of more frequent and severe low flows in more streams than would be expected from random chance. Trends in low flows appear to be a result of changes in the temporal distribution rather than the annual amount of preciptation and/or in evaporation. Base flow recession provides an indicator of a stream's vulnerability to such changes. Linkages between streamflow patterns across temporal scales can be used for understanding and asessing stream responses to the various possible expressions of a changing climate.