Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) of Taiwan region by stochastic model

Abstract:

We conduct probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) of Taiwan region for earthquake sources in the Ryukyu trench. The PTHA estimates the probabilities of a site hit by tsunamis with certain amplitudes threshold. The probabilities were integrated over earthquakes of various magnitudes from potential fault zones in the Ryukyu trench. The annual frequencies of earthquakes in a fault zone are determined or extrapolated by magnitude-frequency distributions of earthquakes (Gutenberg-Richter law) of the zone. Given moment (or magnitude) of an earthquake, we first synthesize patterns of differently complex and heterogeneous slip distributions on the fault using stochastic model. Assuming the slip and stress drop distribution are processes of fractional Brownian motion and described by Hurt exponent. According to ω^-2 model of earthquakes and following Fourier transform, slip distributions of earthquake are determined by randomly distributing phase spectrum of those with greater than corner wave number k_c. Finally, the vertical seafloor displacements induced by each slip distribution are used by COMCOT for simulation of tsunami to assess the impacts on various coasts in Taiwan.