Evaluation of an early warning system for glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events in Huaraz, Peru

Abstract:

People in Cordillera Blanca range in Peru have a long history dealing with natural disasters associated to high mountains; particularly Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF). Examples in the Cordillera Blanca vary from a GLOF that occurred in 1941 that killed more than 5000 people in the city of Huaraz to recent events from Lake Artison Baja in 2012 and Lake 513 on 2010, which were not devastating thanks to safety systems previously installed in those lakes. However, glaciers continue melting leaving new lakes or changing the characteristics of lakes that were previously controlled making safety systems obsolete that worked successfully in the past protecting communities downstream. Lake Palcacocha has evolved from being safe after the installation of a safety system in 1970 to an imminent source of GLOF risk due to the expansion that has occurred during the last 40 years increasing from a volume of 500,000 to 17 million m³. In response to this risk the community in Huaraz is planning an Early Warning System (EWS) that will allow the population to mobilize to a safe area in case a GLOF occurs. In this work we present an adaptation of the LifeSIM model to calculate the benefits from such an EWS using 2007 census data and a FLO-2D flood simulation model. The outputs are the number of people in Huaraz that could lose their life due to a GLOF. Our results indicate that without an EWS around 19,773 people could lose their life; whereas, if an EWS is installed the number of victims reduces to 7344. Finally, if mobilization of the affected population is improved the value reduces to 2865. The results show the importance of the EWS as well as informing and training the population to how to react if a GLOF occurs.