Hotspot identification of trans-boundary water conflict due to anthropogenic water use and climate change in the future

Abstract:

A significant fraction of world population is projected to experience increased water stress in response　to the combined effects of population growth and climate change. Some previous studies have suggested that high water stress had significant causality for civil war, and militarized conflict and trans-boundary water conflict in international river basin. On the other hand, some previous empirical analyses have found that institutionalization (e.g., specific provisions in trans-boundary freshwater treaties) in international river basin was associated with a lower risk of water conflicts during water scarcity. The purpose of this study is to identify these water conflict “hotspots”, integrating institutional and governance mechanisms of adaptations to impact of water stress. These adaptations is classified to 4 abilities and skills and then used to calculate the adaptive capacity. The adaptive capacity includes the way to manage water conflict effectively, plan to deal with　uncertainty in the future, alter current situation and create institutionalization with common perspective throughout the whole activities. This study identifies water conflict “hotspots” by combining high water stress areas projected by a global water resource model and a lower degree of the adaptive capacity. This study finds that 9 water conflict “hotspots” in Africa, Asia and South America.