Evidence for the sensitivity of a Great Basin terminal lake to storm track position

Abstract:

Arid, closed basin watersheds can serve as indicators of regional climate change. In this work we test the hypothesis that surface elevations of Walker Lake, a Great Basin terminal lake, are sensitive to storm track positions. To do so, we use historical climate records, numerically dated paleolakeshore elevations, global reanalysis products and a semi-distributed water balance model. Precipitation and temperature values from calculated wet and dry periods between 1920-2011 were used as input to the model. Storm track climatologies were developed using reanalysis products. Our results demonstrate that a strong relationship exists between historic wet and dry periods and storm track positions. Under the assumption of a stationary climate using these historic wet and dry climates with the model, we simulated lake levels that are consistent with recorded high and lowstands occurring during Heinrich Stadial 1, the Younger Dryas, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. These findings provide direct support for the storm track migration hypothesis. The nonlinear relationship between changes in precipitation and runoff appears to play a critical role in determining why terminal lakes are particularly responsive to changes in storm track positions.