Temporal Variability and Environmental Drivers of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in Western Lake Erie

Abstract:

Understanding temporal variability and environmental drivers of harmful algal blooms (HABs) is important for guiding HABs impact mitigation plans in Lake Erie. The objective of this study is to characterize temporal variability and explore environmental driving factors of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) and phycocyanin (PC), which are determinants of HABs, in western Lake Erie. Ten years’ (2002 to 2012) biweekly estimates of Chl-a and PC over western Lake Erie were retrieved from remote sensing-based measurements of water color with Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer ( MERIS). Nine environmental factors, including water quality and hydrometeorological variables, for the same period were also collected. While Chl-a and PC showed different predictabilities and differences in importance of environmental drivers at different locations and seasons using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) with the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method, hydrometeorological variables consistently showed great influences on Chl-a and PC in all four seasons. For Chl-a, the most significant environmental drivers are solar radiation and wind speed (spring); water temperature, solar radiation, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentration (summer); wind speed (fall); and water temperature and streamflow (winter). For PC, the most important environmental drivers are solar radiation and wind speed (spring); precipitation, water temperature, wind speed, and total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentration (summer); wind speed (fall); precipitation, water temperature, and streamflow ( winter). Wavelet analysis suggested that Chl-a and PC showed strong seasonal and inter-annual pattern – the 0.5- and 1-year periods are the dominant modes for both Chl-a and PC series. These findings offer insights into possible mechanisms underlying the dynamics of the HABs.