Bayesian inverse modeling at the hydrological surface-subsurface interface

Abstract:

In systems where surface and subsurface hydrological domains are highly connected, modeling surface and subsurface flow jointly is essential to accurately represent the physical processes and come up with reliable predictions of flows in river systems or stream-aquifer exchange. The flow quantification at the interface merging the two hydrosystem components is a function of both surface and subsurface spatially distributed parameters.

In the present study, we apply inverse modeling techniques to a synthetic catchment with connected surface and subsurface hydrosystems. The model is physically-based and implemented with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis software. On the basis of hydrograph measurement at the catchment outlet, we estimate parameters such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, overland and channel roughness coefficients. We compare maximum likelihood estimates (ML) with the parameter distributions obtained using the Bayesian statistical framework for spatially random fields provided by the Method of Anchored Distributions (MAD). While ML estimates maximize the probability of observing the data and capture the global trend of the target variables, MAD focuses on obtaining a probability distribution for the random unknown parameters and the anchors are designed to capture local features. We check the consistency between the two approaches and evaluate the additional information provided by MAD on parameter distributions. We also assess the contribution of adding new types of measurements such as water table depth or soil conductivity to the reduction of parameter uncertainty.