Towards forecasting IRTAM: patterns in foF2/hmF2 global assimilative maps during storm events

Abstract:

The IRI based Real Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) implements a novel assimilation approach that fuses climatology descriptions of IRI with real time data from the Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO). At its current stage of development, IRTAM is an ionospheric weather now-casting model that improves the classic climatology, on average, more than twofold. The IRTAM is able to reproduce major effects that are caused by various events of both solar and terrestrial origin.

Next step in further IRTAM development is directed towards its forecasting capability. We would like to know how temporal harmonics of the IRTAM specification of foF2/hmF2 are affected during disturbed conditions. Can we find patterns in their behavior and relate them to particular geomagnetic and solar activity indices? Can we forecast ionospheric conditions using previously observed patterns of behavior? To answer these questions we first investigate known storm events during the latest solar cycle. We calculate IRTAM global foF2/hmF2 expansion maps to look for hidden associations of the underlying map constituents to identify those responsible for particular features in foF2/hmF2 global behavior. This effort will result in a classification catalog of the feature patterns corresponding to these known events. We will compare these patterns to the IRI storm-time foF2 timelines. We expect such analysis to reveal various categories of events and to guide our further efforts towards a forecasting IRTAM.