Time-dependent source model of the Lusi mud volcano

Abstract:

The Lusi mud eruption, near Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, began erupting in May 2006 and continues to erupt today. Previous analyses of surface deformation data suggested an exponential decay of the pressure in the mud source, but did not constrain the geometry and evolution of the source(s) from which the erupting mud and fluids ascend. To understand the spatiotemporal evolution of the mud and fluid sources, we apply a time-dependent inversion scheme to a densely populated InSAR time series of the surface deformation at Lusi. The SAR data set includes 50 images acquired on 3 overlapping tracks of the ALOS L-band satellite between May 2006 and April 2011. Following multitemporal analysis of this data set, the obtained surface deformation time series is inverted in a time-dependent framework to solve for the volume changes of distributed point sources in the subsurface. The volume change distribution resulting from this modeling scheme shows two zones of high volume change underneath Lusi at 0.5-1.5 km and 4-5.5km depth as well as another shallow zone, 7 km to the west of Lusi and underneath the Wunut gas field. The cumulative volume change within the shallow source beneath Lusi is ~2-4 times larger than that of the deep source, whilst the ratio of the Lusi shallow source volume change to that of Wunut gas field is ~1. This observation and model suggest that the Lusi shallow source played a key role in eruption process and mud supply, but that additional fluids do ascend from depths >4 km on eruptive timescales.