Moving Towards Leading Indicators for Global Change

Abstract:

The development and implementation of a national indicators network relevant to climate change, impacts, and response options has taken advantage of the scientific expertise of a large number of disciplines related to global change. Like many previous and current indicators networks, this effort is focused on describing changes in the condition of a small number of indicators of current status and condition of important resources and processes. But an additional challenge remains, which is critically important for indicators that are meant to be used not only scientifically, but also to inform decision-makers: how should we think about indicators that are meant to impart information on future trajectories of the Earth system? In this presentation, I examine two different ways in which this might be accomplished – first is the use of leading indicators that are measures of current conditions, but for which their change over time is strongly correlated with future directions. The second is the use of model-based indicators. Both have strengths and weaknesses, and we explore how each can be approached in the context of global change.