Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability in the Mediterranean/South Europe Region

Abstract:

Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean/South Europe region since 1860 and 21st century climate are investigated based on observational data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. Results suggest that decadal changes in surface air temperature and related water cycle changes (e.g. evaporation) observed in the region during the period since 1860 have been significantly affected by forcings, be of natural or anthropic origin. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability (AMV or AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation also show significant influences on regional climate on decadal timescales. Both the effects of external forcings and variability associated to modes of natural variability have potential implications for regional predictability in the decades to come.