A National Assessment of Sea Level Rise Exposure Using Lidar Elevation Data

Abstract:

The Third National Climate Assessment addressed sea level rise and aggravated coastal flood exposure in all regions, but was completed before high quality lidar-based elevation data became available throughout the entire coastal United States (excluding Alaska). Here we present what we believe to be the first full national assessment incorporating these data. The assessment includes tabulation of land less than 1-6 m above the local high tide line, and of a wide range of features sitting on that land, including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and a wide range of other infrastructure and critical facilities, as well as EPA-listed facilities that are potential sources of contamination during floods or permanent inundation. Tabulations span from zip code to national levels. Notable patterns include the strong concentration of exposure across multiple scales, with a small number of states accounting for most of the total national exposure; and a small number of zip codes accounting for a large proportion of the exposure within many states. Additionally, different features show different exposure patterns; in one example, land and road miles have relatively high exposure but population and property have relatively low exposure in North Carolina.

The assessment further places this exposure analysis in the context of localized sea level rise projections integrated with coastal flood risk.