Modeling the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Streamflow in the Delaware River Basin

Abstract:

Forest-cover loss and drinking-water reservoirs in the upper Delaware River Basin of New York may alter summer low streamflows, which could degrade the in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel. Our project analyzes how flow statistics change with land-cover change for 30-year increments of model-simulated streamflow hydrographs for three watersheds of concern to the National Park Service: the East Branch, West Branch, and main stem of the Delaware River. We use four treatments for land cover ranging from historical high to low forest cover. We subject each land cover to adjusted GCM climate scenarios for 1600, 1900, 1940, and 2040 to isolate land cover from potential climate-change effects. Hydrographs are simulated using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER), a TOPMODEL-based United States Geological Survey hydrologic decision-support tool, which uses the variable-source-area concept and water budgets to generate streamflow. Model parameters for each watershed change with land-use, and capture differences in soil-physical properties that control how rainfall infiltrates, evaporates, transpires, is stored in the soil, and moves to the stream. Our results analyze flow statistics used as indicators of hydrologic alteration, and access streamflow events below the critical flow needed to provide sustainable habitat for dwarf wedgemussels. These metrics will demonstrate how changes in climate and land use might affect flow statistics. Initial results show that the 1940 WATER simulation outputs generally match observed unregulated low flows from that time period, while performance for regulated flow from the same time period and from 1600, 1900, and 2040 require model input adjustments. Our study will illustrate how increased forest cover could potentially restore in-stream habitat for the endangered dwarf wedgemussel for current and future climate conditions.