Coupled Air-Sea Observations and Modeling for Better Understanding Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability

Abstract:

A systematic observational and modeling study is conducted to better understand the physical processes controlling air-sea interaction and their impact on tropical cyclone (TC) prediction and predictability using a fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system developed at the University of Miami and observations from field campaigns. We have developed a unified air-sea interface module that couples multiple atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). It is a physically based and computationally efficient coupling system that is flexible to use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation research and operational coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land models. This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It also allows for ensemble forecasts that can be used for coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation and assessment of uncertainties in coupled model predictions. The coupled modeling system has been evaluated using the coupled air-sea observations (e.g., GPS dropsondes and AXBTs, ocean drifters and floats) collected in recent field campaigns in the Gulf of Mexico and TCs in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This talk will provide 1) an overview of the unified air-sea interface model, 2) fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions of TCs and evaluation with coupled air-sea observations, and 3) results from high-resolution (1.3 km grid resolution) ensemble experiments using a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) perturbation method to assess the predictability and uncertainty in TC predictions.