Waves Generated by Asteroid Impacts and Their Hazard Consequences on The Shorelines

Abstract:

We have performed numerical simulations of a hypothetical asteroid impact onto the ocean in support of an emergency preparedness, planning, and management exercise. We addressed the scenario from asteroid entry; to ocean impact (splash rim); to wave generation, propagation, and interaction with the shoreline. For the analysis we used GEODYN, a hydrocode, to simulate the impact and generate the source wave for the large-scale shallow water wave program, SWWP. Using state-of-the-art, high-performance computing codes we simulated three impact areas — two are located on the West Coast near Los Angeles’s shoreline and the San Francisco Bay, respectively, and the third is located in the Gulf of Mexico, with a possible impact location between Texas and Florida. On account of uncertainty in the exact impact location within the asteroid risk corridor, we examined multiple possibilities for impact points within each area. Uncertainty in the asteroid impact location was then convolved and represented as uncertainty in the shoreline flooding zones.

This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and partially funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program at LLNL under tracking code 12-ERD-005.