Impact of Urbanization on Precipitation Distribution and Intensity over Lake Victoria Basin

Abstract:

In this study, sensitivity simulations on the impact of rapid urbanization over Lake Victoria Basin in East Africa were done using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4-rc29) with the Hostetler lake model activated. The simulations were done for the rainy seasons that is the long rains (March-April-May) and short rains (October-November-December). Africa is projected to have a surge in urbanization with an approximate rate of 590% in 2030 over their 2000 levels. The Northern part of Lake Victoria Basin and some parts of Rwanda and Burundi are amongst the regions with high urbanization projections. Simulations were done with the land cover for 2000 and the projected 2030 urbanization levels. The results showed that increasing the urban fraction over the northern part of the basin modified the physical parameters such as albedo, moisture and surface energy fluxes, aerodynamic roughness and surface emissivity, thereby altering the precipitation distribution, intensity and frequency in the region. The change in the physical parameters gave a response of an average increase in temperature of approximately 2^oC over the urbanized region. A strong convergence zone was formed over the urbanized region and thereby accelerating the lake-breeze front towards the urbanized region center. Precipitation in the urbanized region and regions immediate to the area increased by approximately 4mm/day, while drying up the southern (non-urbanized) side of the basin. The drying up of the southern side of the basin could be a result of divergent flow and subsidence that suppresses vertical development of storms.